5 Thoughts on the Liberal Leadership
1) Dion's choice to "go green" on Saturday morning was brilliant. In an early interview one of his organizers explained that green represented growth (on the ballot) and added it was also representative of Dion's environmental priorities. That was the last I heard of the growth explanation, it was quickly picked up by the media as a purely environmental symbol - the Dion camp was right to go with this.
Also, if I ever have the chance I'll be stealing the idea of a new colour scheme on voting day. Tip o' the hat Dion's organizers.
2) A surging Green Party and a Liberal Party with a bigger focus on the environment. Vote splitting is our friend.
3) Dion is not popular in Quebec, neither was Chretien but he still won a lot of seats. It's too soon to say if Dion will help or hinder the LPC in Quebec.
4) Another francophone Quebec Liberal leader will turn off some voters - mainly voters in the West or in rural Ontario which already. This will not be a big factor.
5) Dion has a lot in common with Harper. He's decisive (read stubborn if you're not a supporter) and something of a reluctant politician. Both men tend more toward policy wonk than leader. Is this a new trend in Canadian politics? Unlikely. Will it make for an interesting election? Undoubtedly.
Note: My prediction of a Kennedy victory made back in the summer was incorrect, but the way in which I said Kennedy would win is the way Dion did win. A half-point for me.
posted by Matt at 11:20 AM
6 Comments:
'Jean Dion" is not really Green and we all know it.
He is not a REAL Quebecer in the sense that Chretien was so this could hurt him too.
Lastly he lacks any charisma or political smarts unlike Chretien. He will have to be totally stage managed by backroom boys.
Chretien is and was a crook but he did know a thing or two about politics.
Another Quebecer is not going to make many people happy.
December 03, 2006 12:13 PM
the scarf thing is what won it for Dion. In terms of group psych it was brilliant- a gimick that was easily identifiable and by the end, everyone wanted the scarf. The whole us vs. the mentality. Unfortunately, like naming his dog Kyoto, it is just a symbol of caring about then environment without actually doing anything FOR the environment. The fact that he was the minister for this while emissions increased says much about Dion's abilities.
December 03, 2006 12:46 PM
"A surging Green Party and a Liberal Party with a bigger focus on the environment. Vote splitting is our friend."
Except in the LNC byelection the Greens took mainly from the NDP and to a lesser extent from the Conservatives. They did not sway many Liberal voters. The GPC is not so easy to pigeonhole and may actually take enough PC votes from the Conservatives and eco-votes from the NDP to give the Liberals their next majority.
December 03, 2006 12:48 PM
Dion is not popular in Quebec, neither was Chretien but he still won a lot of seats.
Wasn't there a seperatist governmet running Quebec City when Chretien won those federal seats?
I think the political danger for the CPC is that enough Ontario voters come to see Dion as an LPC version of Harper.
Dion is not a new sort of political animal and probably is closer to the old guard than to the new -- much more lefty -- guard. But he owes a great deal more to Kennedy than to the party Establishment. I think he will be squeezed in the middle of the two new groupings within the LPC.
That can be used to the LPC advantage because they can do the old trick of appealing to everybody by being all things, superficially.
So the CPC needs to get at the substantive differences between the fighting factions within the LPC. That was the successful strategy of the Trudeau-ites back in Joe Clark's days as PC leader. The strategy reminded voters that even within his own party, Clark was not taken very seriously by stronger voices.
You know how the LPC have tried to make Harper look like the puppet of GWB? That is probably the sort of approach that would define Dion nationally -- he is a puppet of this or that faction -- of all factions -- within the LPC. The lefty side is not that appealing to the sort of voters who like stability and normalcy. The establishment side is tarnished, justly, by the corruption and scandals.
Remind each side of the other's influence on Dion's team and Dion becomes marginalized as a caretaker under constant seige.
December 03, 2006 12:51 PM
I agree with torian: from a marketing and branding perspective, I thought bringing out the bright green scarves, Ts, hats and signs was brilliant.
First, it achieved differentiation from all the other camps who used various forms of red, and one could visably see the growth in delegate support from ballot to ballot.
Secondly, and most important, it sybolized a break from the same old same old, and those who felt renewal of the party was desperately needed were compelled to walk toward the green.
This tactic will be attempted at all future leadership convetions, but likely not as well, as it requires everyone to stand still.
December 03, 2006 1:41 PM
wayward son you are full of it my friend. The GPC took EQUALLY from all three parties in that election around 5-8% a piece. The Tories fell less than 1% behind the Greens. Also the voter turnout was absmal at 43%. This helped the Green as most of its voters were motivated. During a federal election when you will have 170% this number voting is will make a very different result. Since their was less party there was more ability for the Green to speak without being drowned out by the otehr two parties. During the election not so. Also during the election Elizabeth May will show her true colors as the socialist she is. it is not like Jim who was as ol' PCer. May will take fromt eh NDP and from the Left Liberal's who Dion is trying to reach to. This is good for the conservatives as you have three parties going for the same base of enviromentalism and that will let Harper take the election on the pocketbook.
December 03, 2006 2:34 PM
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